ISIS is still active in Iraq, but its strength and influence have declined significantly since its territorial defeat in 2019. Some of the main points are:
- ISIS has officially declared that it has a presence in Iraq, along with Syria, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Afghanistan-Pakistan region, Caucasus, East Asia (mostly Philippines), Somalia, and West Africa (mostly Nigeria)⁴.
- Kurdish intelligence officials estimate that ISIS is 10,000 strong in Iraq with between 4,000 and 5,000 fighters, and a similar number of sleeper cells and sympathisers³. The international community should be worried about the group's ability to launch attacks and recruit new members.
- ISIS has faced military pressure from the Iraqi government and its allies since 2017. The group lost most of its territory in Iraq by 2019 after a series of offensives by the Iraqi army and its Kurdish partners. The last stronghold of ISIS in Iraq was the village of Baghuz in Deir ez-Zor province⁴.
- However, ISIS has not completely disappeared from Iraq. The group still operates as an insurgency against the Iraqi state and security forces. It also carries out targeted attacks against civilians and government officials. It uses propaganda to spread its ideology and recruit new followers online³.
- ISIS also faces challenges from internal divisions and rival factions within its ranks. The group has lost some of its senior leaders due to defections or assassination attempts. It also competes with other extremist groups such as al-Qaeda's Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) for resources and influence.
Source:
(1) Where is the Islamic State group still active around the world? - BBC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-47691006.
(2) Isis in Iraq: Militants 'getting stronger again' - BBC.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50850325.
(3) The State of al Qaeda and ISIS in 2023.
https://www.aei.org/articles/the-state-of-al-qaeda-and-isis-in-2023/.
(4) The Islamic State in 2023: Threat Levels and Repatriation Questions.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/islamic-state-2023-threat-levels-and-repatriation-questions.
